Watchlist Notes

Yearend financial reporting is the best time of year, we get a full year set of results, a newly filed 10-K, and in most cases a renewed outlook.

In parallel with reviewing results for my portfolio holdings, I like to check in on watchlist names and see where big moves up or down took place.

Here are some names experiencing big moves that look interesting:

1. Hanesbrands (HBI, $6) — Probably the most actionable idea on my list. Sold Champion business to delever, primed for a capital allocation inflection after they hit leverage target this year

2. NCR Voyix (VYX, $10) — Sold their software biz and now have a clean balance sheet… very cheap on EBITDA/FCF but management is mum on capital allocation plans

3. Brunswick (BC, $55) — COVID over-earner (2025 EPS down 60% from 2022) but stock trades at 13x cyclical low earnings and biz quality has improved past few years

4. Currency Exchange (CURN, $15) — Winding down Canadian segment, cheap and growing US business

5. HP Inc (HPQ, $30) — Computers and printers aren’t dead yet… incredibly cheap with low leverage and sending 100% FCF back to shareholders annually

6. Elanco (ELAN, $11) — Former spin (Lilly, LLY), animal health comp to Zoetis, made a bad acquisition and took on some debt, getting the balance sheet cleaned up and trading at 13x EPS

7. Newell (NWL, $6) — Turnaround story at ~10x EPS but tons of leverage and challenging revenue growth… watching for now

8. Celanese (CE, $48) — Stock is down by 2/3rd after blowing up from a mega acquisition. It’s probably too early but I want to stay close to this one.

9. Ingevity (NGVT, $44) — Chemical maker with activists swirling, company is shopping product lines and assets; maybe the whole thing gets sold?

10. Lamb Weston (LW, $50) — Really beaten down share price and they’ve lowered guidance 3 consecutive quarters… it’s cheap, but it feels early with restaurants still reeling

11. Vestis (VSTS, $11) — Former spin from ARMK, trading at <10x FCF, rumored takeout candidate, way off recent highs

12. Restaurant basket — I should really stop watching this group… BLMN $8, JACK $36, DENN $4, RRGB $5, CBRL $40

Drop a comment if you’ve looked at any of these.