Value Don't Lie

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Value Don't Lie
Midyear Picks Update
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Midyear Picks Update

An update on VDL open/closed recommendations, general commentary, and a few actionable ideas.

Jun 02, 2025
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Value Don't Lie
Value Don't Lie
Midyear Picks Update
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The roadmap for this post will follow: 1) a snapshot of current recommendations; 2) overview of open/closed ideas; 3) quick highlight of each recommendation; 4) random commentary I feel like going deeper into.

For newcomers, I’d suggest skimming the following:

  • My bucket approach to investing

    • Core — cheap, undiscovered, or underappreciated compounders (low quantity, big weightings, longer hold periods)

    • Generals — mix of plain vanilla cheap stocks and special sits

    • Option — net-nets, levered turnarounds, balance sheet plays, call spreads, asymmetric bets (basket approach with lower weightings)

  • My investing philosophy & process notes

    • All-cap value investor with small/mid-cap emphasis

    • Special situation focus

    • Cash flow

For folks that aren’t subscribers yet… here’s a 20% off promo to give it a try. I promise you’ll find at least one good idea in the lot (heck, these are my best ideas that I’m personally invested in!).

Get 20% off forever

Small and mid cap stocks have been in a “bear market” for years now (relative to the S&P 500 at least). YTD 2025 has seen a widening of this trend. Translation? There are still plenty of opportunities in small and mid caps with the S&P 400/600 hanging around 14-16x earnings (vs. 20-22x for the S&P 500).

6mo performance — Small vs. Mid vs. S&P 500

Notable VDL activity this year includes: 1) buying 7 beaten down small caps (all still attractively priced) during the April tariff selloff; and 2) closed out a handful of recommendations to double down on my Starz bet (more on that later).

Quick Value #264 - 7 beaten down small caps

Quick Value #264 - 7 beaten down small caps

Value Don't Lie
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Apr 7
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As always, feel free to leave comments or request updates.

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