Given all cash is going to pay debt in the next three years, ask yourself, once that debt is gone, and this is a derisked cash machine, what will the share price be at the end of 2027?!
Before the deferred Anglo payments, $300m to $500m a year.
Another note on your analysis is the debt. It’s convertible and it will convert so you can remove it as debt and just increase the share count for your math.
Made a companion video on YouTube for this write-up... check it out:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VY6ibXZncVE
I like BTU and have a small position since 2021 where the stock was less than $5. Planning to let this run for many years. Thank you for the article.
PV10 on twenty year cash flows with terminal value zero and $225 coal is about $33/share.
BMO have even higher 2026 cash flow than me.
Given all cash is going to pay debt in the next three years, ask yourself, once that debt is gone, and this is a derisked cash machine, what will the share price be at the end of 2027?!
How much cash do you think they’ll generate in 2025 and 2026?
Before the deferred Anglo payments, $300m to $500m a year.
Another note on your analysis is the debt. It’s convertible and it will convert so you can remove it as debt and just increase the share count for your math.