Good find... it's interesting this lawsuit isn't mentioned in the prospectus anywhere... also, it looks like CPPIB was targeting the LGF/LION SPAC transaction
Isn't the obvious move to buy LGFA and short your LION exposure? I don't understand your comment "to you buy LGF and short LION for just the STRZ stake? Not easy to accomplish when you need $7 for every 1-5c of STRZ position." Today I can buy 100 shares of LGFA for $825. I can short 112 shares of LION $817.60. This implies that I'm paying $7.40 for 100 shares (pre-split) for LFG RemainCo / Starz. This works out to $0.074 per share. If you are right with your analysis (I think it's right), LFG RemainCo / Starz is worth $1.50-$3.00. And you are buying it today for $0.074. What am I missing?
They way that I think about it is I pay $8.35 per share for LGFA. I short my LION exposure (don't have to outlay capital for this) and I'm left with a stub position in Remainco/Starz that is worth$1.50. So I'm making 18% (1.50/8.35) in less than a month. You can scale it up as big as you want (assuming borrow fees remain low/nonexistant). But maybe I'm missing something...
I was reading the registration document and noticed that 10 million shares are specifically allocated for incentive stock options, separate from the Starz 2025 Plan. Wouldn't this significantly dilute the shares? What are your thoughts on that?
Considering this CPPIB lawsuit I would think from r/r view would be somewhat better to take a position once it all shakes out. This could make the spin completion linger for a while, no? https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/08/27/lions-gate-sued-by-pension-fund-seeking-to-block-starz-split/
Good find... it's interesting this lawsuit isn't mentioned in the prospectus anywhere... also, it looks like CPPIB was targeting the LGF/LION SPAC transaction
Thanks, yep, risks here mostly are indirect.
Some interesting detail on debt here btw - https://archive.ph/0d2Vh
Isn't the obvious move to buy LGFA and short your LION exposure? I don't understand your comment "to you buy LGF and short LION for just the STRZ stake? Not easy to accomplish when you need $7 for every 1-5c of STRZ position." Today I can buy 100 shares of LGFA for $825. I can short 112 shares of LION $817.60. This implies that I'm paying $7.40 for 100 shares (pre-split) for LFG RemainCo / Starz. This works out to $0.074 per share. If you are right with your analysis (I think it's right), LFG RemainCo / Starz is worth $1.50-$3.00. And you are buying it today for $0.074. What am I missing?
Let's say you want a meaningful position in STRZ, say $50k or more... you'd have to buy/short $675k for that position...
They way that I think about it is I pay $8.35 per share for LGFA. I short my LION exposure (don't have to outlay capital for this) and I'm left with a stub position in Remainco/Starz that is worth$1.50. So I'm making 18% (1.50/8.35) in less than a month. You can scale it up as big as you want (assuming borrow fees remain low/nonexistant). But maybe I'm missing something...
Yeah I’m with you 100%
I just don’t have the buy / short capacity personally to get enough STRZ pre split (would if I could)
"Formal guidance is $200m FY25 OIBDA" is that pre- or post-separation? Does the $200m OIBDA guide include corporate/standalone overhead costs ?
I was reading the registration document and noticed that 10 million shares are specifically allocated for incentive stock options, separate from the Starz 2025 Plan. Wouldn't this significantly dilute the shares? What are your thoughts on that?
pre-reverse split?
Yeah, this is pre-split... I think it's must a "max" setting but we'll need to see the actual proxy / formal plan with details on allocation
"There are 83.6m A shares and 156.5m B shares of LGF = 250.1m pre-spin share count and 16.7m post-spin share count for STRZ."
I get 240.1 pre-spin
83.6m x 1.12 + 156.5m = 250.1m
I’ll find the page from S-4 and share a snip from their calc
All good. On the same page now
Yessir?
Shove this scammy garbage deep into your asshole and jump off a building