Value Don't Lie

Value Don't Lie

Quick Value #325 - Asymmetric Inflection Story

Early innings inflection story trading at 6x cash flow with a 9% dividend yield and net cash balance sheet. Compelling risk/reward with an upside/downside ratio of 4-8x.

Aug 04, 2026
∙ Paid

Today’s post:

  • Came public during 2021 SPAC boom

  • Experienced COVID-era supernormal earnings

  • Fundamentals finally bottoming in 2025; 2 quarters of improving results

  • Shares look cheap at 6x cash flow, 9% dividend yield, and net cash position

For new subscribers — these write-ups are meant to be a “jumping off point” for the idea generation process (i.e. a surface level review). Each write-up includes: (1) company background; (2) why the idea is interesting; and (3) fair value estimate.

Check out past write-ups here and my home base page here.

Recent write-ups include:

  • 07/27/26 — Looking at the Resideo + ADI Global spin-off

  • 07/20/26 — Jockey-led holding company at HCI Group ($)

  • 07/13/26 — Fubo + Hulu Live merger + management change

  • 07/06/26 — Recent “quality” spin-off at Mobility Global ($)

  • 06/29/26 — Somnigroup’s vertical integration acquisition spree

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